Projection Systems
With all the major baseball projection systems revealing their 2009 Projection, which system do you weigh the heaviest? Already a couple SOT owners have weighed in. “Pecota has jumped the shark” according to 101 Wins GM Peter Quinn. While just a moment ago, Christian Galvin, Wait Till Next Year, and www.prospecttube.com, referred to Pecota as “MakeBelieveCota’s”. Harsh, but honest words from two of the best here at SOT. www.Fangraphs.com does a wonderful job listing each of the projection systems, not sure if Pecota posted to date, but cruise on over there.
This being my 6th year diving into the projection world, i’m slightly biased to Pecota. Not sure if it’s becuase they were introduced to me first, or maybe it was out of the ordinary statistics that fascinated me. Does pecota have it’s faults? Absolutely, but then again who doesn’t.
Each year someone keeps track of the different projection systems and ranks them. Anyone know where this information is available?
I think you hit the nail on the head – you’re bias towards pecota probably stems from two things, 1) it being your first and no one forgets their first, and 2) the reputation of BP. For some, and I’m one of them, BP has lost its shine. Initially, it was the shiny new toy I couldn’t put down, but over time, it’s become less and less relevant while my interest in baseball has grown. I credit BP for educating me during my formative years, but at some point, they lost their grip on me. The other issue I have with BP is that PECOTA remains one of the few systems that still charges $$. I have yet to read any study strong enough to convince me that PECOTA is better than Marcel, CHONE, Zips, Oliver, or GALcota.
I’ll go on record as saying I still think PECOTA is the best. However at the end of the day I dont learn to much from any projection system. Most are roughly the same. I do find it interesting to see some projection systems take hard stances on guys which I can appreciate. While I think PECOTA went way overboard with Matt Weiters this year I still appreciate that type of boldness. I am a little surprised by WTNY’s 180 degree turn on PECOTA as it was only a couple of years ago he was firing off links to me showing me that studies overwhelmingly show PECOTA as the best.
I think it’s clear why I’ve stopped preaching at the PECOTA altar – they’re no longer the clear leader in the clubhouse. Unless you can show me otherwise, they all seem to be pretty similar to me. In 2005, PECOTA was king.
Wieters’ PECOTA is a little conservative if you ask me. After reading it I was tempted to cancel my subscription but I took a few deep breaths, gathered myself and decided it wasn’t the best way to handle the situation.
All kidding aside, I can’t take the Wieters hype anymore. I’ll be disappointed with anything less than a MVP like season from him.