Is the Keith Law Crush in Jeopardy?
Interesting Q&A regarding one of WTNY’s so-called prized possessions. Watch out in the next couple months for an inbox full of Tea offers.
Q: In your opinion, who are the most overrated and underrated prospects in the Rangers’ system? Why?
Keith Law: I don’t know that there’s anyone who’s overrated in the Rangers’ system; I suppose you could say [Taylor] Teagarden, who didn’t hit at all this past year and whose arm problems might be a permanent issue. By my count, he only caught on back-to-back days 31 times all season, across all three levels.
Underrated … [Michael] Main, certainly. [Kasey] Kiker. [Robbie] Ross. All three are dinged because they’re not tall, but Main’s a great athlete with huge stuff, and all three are excellent competitiors with Kiker and Ross showing good feel for pitching.
Q:You rank Martin Perez as the number 13 pitching prospect in all of baseball. The buzz on Perez among Rangers fans is heavy, but you’re the first to key on him to that extent nationally. You suggested he has a chance to “shoot up the system” — at age 17, what sort of track would you put him on if you were calling the shots?
Keith Law: It really depends on his performance — I doubt anyone suggested last winter that [Neftali] Feliz should finish 2008 in AA, but his performance clearly merited it. Perez should start 2009 in Low-A [Hickory], and if he’s dominating, there’s merit in skipping him over the [High-A] California League, especially if he’s showing great command.
The crush remains, although I disagree with some of what he says. For example, his claim that Teagarden didn’t hit at all last year. His total OPS for the year was over .800. That’s not bad for someone who didn’t hit. Wake up Keithie!
You had to include his absurdly fluky big-league cup of coffee for that. His OPSs in the minors were .584 (AA) and .728 (AAA).
“who didn’t hit at all this past year”
So you want to include his “absurdly fluky” 16 games in AA (584OPS), but I can’t include his “absurdly flukey” 16 games in the bigs. Maybe the statement should read, “who didn’t hit at all while in the minors this past year.”
Keith is spot on here. Also, I doubt Klaw dislikes him as a prospect, but he was asked who was the most overrated prospect in the Texas system. Teagarden is 100% the right call. Outside of his Sept cup of coffee Tea had a pretty bad year with boatloads of K’s all while being old for every level he has played at. Its silly how much those 16 games pumped up his value to the point that he would be mentioned in the same breath as Bucholz.
Keith Anderson (my guess is still on Derek Anderson as the postee, although AG is #2 on my list), I mean Keith Law, will forever be a binky because I’m a fan of his work.
However, like Keith, 101 is falling prey to cherry picking. Can someone explain why you wouldn’t just use his total season AB’s? You know, the total AB’s which resulted in a +800 OPS? Instead, 101 is now the 2nd poster to say, “he had a fluky 16 game stretch which should be discounted.” Also, if we’re going to discount small samples, why not discount his sample in AA instead of his sample in the bigs, where you know, the competition is probably better? I have yet to make the case that he didn’t stuggle at times, simply stating that it’s factually incorrect to say that he didn’t hit at all in the past year, unless an 800 OPS qualifies as “not hitting”. Next topic please, since I just sent a couple people back to school.
By the way, I don’t completely disagree with his answer to the question, and 101′s follow-up. In THAT system, Tea may be the most overrated, although I’d give Andrus the slight lead, based solely on the lack of credit I’m giving him for defensive wizardry. In the roto world, defense has no value. In fact, it actually hurts him in this case because it’s the reason he’s making the bigs and on his way to a sub 700 OPS.
pretty funny stuff. I had no idea WTNY would be so sensitive about Teagarden.
Hey, it was a solid draft day selection for WTNY, and I’m just protecting “my guy” from misleading statements. In my world, 800 is far from not hitting at all.
And not that I’m questioning whether or not that was the actual Mr. Law commenting on the Sons of Theo site, but if so, can you tell me what happened to the chat last week? It’s nowhere to be found.
Then throw out the 16 games at AA as well. We are still left with a 24 yr old in AAA with a 728ops who struck out 30% of the time last year. It was a disapointing season for him save for a few September home runs off Ryan Freierband, Chris Bootcheck and Dallas Braden. All this equals ‘overrrated ‘
Do you have a special formula that indicates which AB’s should be counted and which shouldn’t be counted? What’s the logic behind picking and choosing the good AB’s vs the bad AB’s? In 2008, Tea had 300+ total AB’s and was .806. He was also 24, struck out a bunch, and played across three levels. Those are all the facts. Saying he didn’t hit at all last year, doesn’t match the facts.
Overrated? That’s a different argument.